Report requirements
Please find our cohort's "Challenges of Tomorrow" submission here.
Distribution of wealth:
Technology is likely to bring about an even greater level of wealth inequality and concentration of wealth as a result of a decrease in availability of work. This is leading to the creation of a new class system.
Schools need to give students the skills they need to participate in politics actively, or even radically. Civics needs to be taken more seriously by schools. We need a new kind of civics class that focuses less on the procedures of government and more on the responsibilities and duties of "citizens."
Distribution of employment.
Technology is likely to disrupt many current industries and automate many existing and also future jobs.
Lifelong learning so that students continuously learn the new skills they need to stay relevant. There needs to be a greater emphasis on the importance of areas that will be slower to automate, such as creativity, emotional intelligence, and soft skills. Create new sectors of work. Make volunteer work paid work. Create a system where we can all share the benefits of automation and the reduced requirement for human labor.
Climate change:
Green house gas emissions need to be reduced by 60% by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5-2 degrees. 28% of GHG are from electricity, 28% from transportation, 22% industry, 9% agriculture, and 11% is commercial/residential. We need to drastically reduce emissions in all of these areas rapidly to meet targets. WHO estimates that 250,000 additional deaths will occur each year from 2030 to 2050 in Africa as a result of climate change. If current trends continue, global warming will reach levels of 4-5 degrees by the end of the century.
There is currently political inertia to do anything due to the influence of oil and coal industry lobbying, global competition and the sheer scale of the problem. Students and teachers will need to become more political involved. The first step is to push for all schools to be carbon neutral by 2030. Students must push for alternative forms of energy.
Artificial intelligence and technology
While we are likely to see an increase in jobs in the short term due to the continual development of A.I., Oxford University that predicted 47% of US jobs could be automated by 2030. Similarly, the median estimate for the artificial general intelligence (AGI) is 2040–2050. At this point thinks become unpredictable. An AGI will be capable of improving itself and of exponentially surpassing human intelligence. This may lead to a technological singularity.
There are two approaches to solving this problem, one is to act out of fear and to protest against the development of AGI, as ultimately it could be a threat if it becomes autonomous or if it is used in warfare. The other is to teach students the skills they need to work on the development of AGI in the hopes that these problems can be avoided or minimized. It could be that the effort to develop AGI will create a significant number of high skilled jobs.
Deception in a world of fake news and deep fakes.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to take information at face value and to find news sources that can be trusted. Fake news is on the rise and new technology threatens to make the problem worse than ever.
Students must be taught critical thinking skills and digital literacy… and taught to ask the question “how do we know what we know?” Students should be made aware of the interpretative and complex nature of knowledge… including personal ideological biases, so that they may acquire (and disseminate) information responsibly.
Privacy in a world of surveillance
China and many shopping malls around the world are introducing smart surveillance systems. This combined with smart phone tracking means that now more than ever we are being tracked and monitored. This may become a bigger problem depending on abuses of power by those in control of it.The social credit system in China could just be the start.
The importance of digital literacy, critical thinking skills, and getting across to learners concepts like lateral reading is more vital than ever.
Empathy in a digital world
The World Economic Forum placed emotional intelligence 6th in its list of top 10 skills for 2020, but up until now this skill has not received the level of attention that it deserves.
Students need to be taught the importance of emotional and social intelligences. Time spent at school should include more face to face social time so as to increase the social skills of students.
Collaborating with others in a digital world
Coordinating with others falls at number five, putting it in the middle of the list. Our world is increasingly digital, connecting people from around the world like never before. However, our students continue struggle to collaborate with their peers.
Some possible solutions to this issue include: project-based assignments, peer-to-peer teaching, and creating small learning groups. Project-based assignments allow students to work together towards a common goal, dividing tasks and responsibilities amongst each other. Peer-to-peer teaching lets students become teachers, helping their peers (either individual, small groups, or whole class) tp better understand the topic at hand. In small learning groups, students can work on individual assignments or on a group assignment, focusing on providing support for one another.
I went a bit overboard here as I did not know it was an ungraded assignment and it was a topic of interest to me.
Post 1
As an elementary school teacher, I am preparing students for the 2030s rather than the 2020s.
Here are some of the challenges I expect that they will face:
Students will need to be prepared to be extremely involved in politics, because their future depends on it.
Students will need to be fighting for an even distribution of resources as a result of a decrease in available work for people as a result of technology and an even greater level of wealth inequality and concentration of wealth. Those that own the technology that automates this new world will be in control of most the resources. They won't want to give up their power or wealth.
Oil and coal stakeholders will still be lobbying to maintain their place in society. As will all industry with significant effect on carbon or methane levels. Beef production will need to be phased out. Climate change will cause geopolitical uncertainty and it will mean that society will either need to adapt to put an end to endless growth or suffer the consequences of runaway climate change. These children are going to need to fight to overthrow the power of the oil and coal lobby. What's more, they may need to accept and learn to live a life with less abundance in an effort to reduce their carbon footprint.
Sorry, I just wanted to post this here to spark some debate and because I felt the suggested resources were overly optimistic and too short sighted (maybe as they are talking about 2025 rather than 2035 but actually, efforts to prevent runaway climate change need to be well underway by 2025 even if the effects won't be seen till later, so again, I think we need to take this seriously). I will find some references to support some of my assertions over the next week.
Post 2
References for the challenge of climate change:
"We have 12 years to limit climate change catastrophe, warns UN" https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report
"Coal power would have to drop by 60-80 percent from 2010 levels by 2030." https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/were-almost-out-of-time-the-alarming-ipcc-climate-report-and-what-to-do-next/
"Global coal use up as greenhouse gas emissions rise" hhttps://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/26/global-coal-use-up-by-third-as-greenhouse-gas-emissions-rise
Oil Giants Invest $110 Billion In New Fossil Fuels After Spending $1 Billion On Green PR
"The reckless disparity comes just months after the United Nations warned that the world must rapidly phase out fossil fuel use over the next decade or face catastrophic global warming of at least 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit."https://www.huffpost.com/entry/oil-industry-climate_n_5c940962e4b0a6329e144e6c
https://m.phys.org/news/2019-04-dire-future-etched-co2-million.html :
"With just 1C of warming so far, Earth is already dealing with floods, droughts and superstorms made worse by rising seas."
"There's a lag," he explained. "If you turn on the oven at home and set it to 200C, it doesn't reach that (level) immediately. It's the same for climate."
"CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use, construction, aviation and agribusiness continue to rise, and are currently on track to heat up the planet 4C by century's end."
https://www.livescience.com/1433-timeline-earth-precarious-future.html
2020 2030:
2020
Flash floods will very likely increase across all parts of Europe. (IPCC)
Less rainfall could reduce agriculture yields by up to 50 percent in some parts of the world. (IPCC)
World population will reach 7.6 billion people. (U.S. Census Bureau)
2030
Diarrhea-related diseases will likely increase by up to 5 percent in low-income parts of the world. (IPCC)
Up to 18 percent of the world’s coral reefs will likely be lost as a result of climate change and other environmental stresses. In Asian coastal waters, the coral loss could reach 30 percent. (IPCC)
World population will reach 8.3 billion people. (U.S. Census Bureau)
Warming temperatures will cause https://www.livescience.com/773-snowy-mountaintops-africa-disappear.html">temperate glaciers on equatorial mountains in Africa to disappear. (Richard Taylor, University College London, Geophysical Research Letters:)
In developing countries, the urban population will more than double to about 4 billion people, packing more people onto a given city's land area. The urban populations of developed countries may also increase by as much as 20 percent. (World Bank: The Dynamics of Global Urban Expansion)
The Arctic Sea could be https://www.livescience.com/5394-arctic-summers-ice-free-30-years.html">ice-free in the summer. (James Overland, NOAA, Muyin Wang, University of Washington, Geophysical Research Letters)
Beyond 2030:
"If we do no more than we are doing today to reduce GHG emissions, the IPCC projects that temperature in 2100 will be up to approximately five degrees higher than it is today." http://sciencenordic.com/what-will-our-climate-look-2050"> http://sciencenordic.com/what-will-our-climate-look-2050
"In fact, adjustments in the Earth system in response to the increased heat energy stored will go on for centuries. Ice, for example, will continue to melt and sea levels continue to rise well beyond 2100." http://sciencenordic.com/what-will-our-climate-look-2050"> http://sciencenordic.com/what-will-our-climate-look-2050
Geopolitical instability: https://unfccc.int/news/climate-change-poses-increasing-risks-to-global-stability"> https://unfccc.int/news/climate-change-poses-increasing-risks-to-global-stability
World Economic Forum: "Climate change is an 'imminent' security threat, risk experts say" https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/02/climate-change-an-imminent-security-threat-risk-experts-say/"> https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/02/climate-change-an-imminent-security-threat-risk-experts-say/
Environmental and agricultural effects:
"Climate change is causing spring to start sooner, which could see food prices rise and insect populations collapse, study warns" https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/climate-change-spring-start-global-warming-insect-survey-a8849386.html"> https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/climate-change-spring-start-global-warming-insect-survey-a8849386.html
"Livestock are responsible for about 14.5 - 18 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)." https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-livestock-emissions/fighting-global-warming-one-cow-belch-at-a-time-idUSKBN1K91CU"> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-livestock-emissions/fighting-global-warming-one-cow-belch-at-a-time-idUSKBN1K91CU
"42 percent of agricultural emissions come from animal agriculture. Two-thirds of those gases are directly emitted by ruminants: animals like cows, buffalo and sheep that use bacteria in their stomachs to ferment food." https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/climate/cows-global-warming.html"> https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/climate/cows-global-warming.html
I read some of the IPCC report some time ago, and I believe exact figures are in there somewhere too, but I am going to stop researching for tonight, basic point here is that we need massive change very fast, but it is not happening. So these kids, they are going to have to revolt or something to change things. This is definitely one of the biggest challenges facing all of us. And after the revolt and the changes, things might be a lot more difficult than they were before. Things might be a lot more expensive and we may have to live with less to keep carbon levels down. Oil is key in plastic production, too, so keep that in mind.
Post 3
Another two challenges:
Being able to decipher the truth and what is probably real in a world of lies and illusion. Fakes news, and deep fakes (I'll provide references soon) are going to make it more difficult than ever to under to trust news, 'facts' and 'information' at face value.
Privacy in a world of surveillance. China and many shopping malls around the world are introducing smart surveillance systems. This combined with smart phone tracking means that now more than ever we are being tracked and monitored. This may become a bigger problem depending on abuses of power by those in control of it.The social credit system in China could just be the start.
Sources on deepfakes by another cohort member:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/internet/entries/814eee5b-a731-45f9-9dd1-9e7b56fca04f
http://stream.aljazeera.com/story/201903112142-0025803
Post 4
Here is another challenge for our students:
Lifelong learning. The children growing up now will not simply finish education and then spend the rest of their lives working in a career. They will be constantly under pressure to upskill and reskill themselves as technology changes, competition increases and the demands of the world change too. There was a unit on this on an Oxford course that I did, this is what they concluded we are preparing these students for. We are preparing them for. This is something that we will experience and that the kids we are teaching now will probably also experience.
"The illiterate of the 21st Century are not those that cannot read or write, but those that cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn." – Alvin Toffler (1970, Future Shock)
Also, [cohort member], regarding your climate change optimism, unfortunately that type of optimism is natural and it is part of the climate change problem. Especially as it is a problem that is going to affect the kids that we are teaching a lot more than us. As human beings we are all naturally optimistic, but it is this optimism that is part of the cause for the inertia to do anything about this problem. What's more, the people that are going to be affected first will be in the less affluent and hotter countries.
https://www.livescience.com/64535-climate-change-health-deaths.html:
"In 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that climate change would lead to about 250,000 additional deaths each year between 2030 and 2050, from factors such as malnutrition, heat stress and malaria." The New England Journal of Medicine, said this is a "conservative estimate."
"Climate change could also force more than 100 million people into extreme poverty by 2030, according to World Bank estimates, which in turn, would make them more vulnerable to the health effects of the changing climate."
Also, when the insects or the coral die, so do we. Check out my earlier references for what is happening there. Those are ticking time bombs, and there are a number of other similar problems, like how climate change effects could also make nuclear war more likely.
How long till governments makes this the priority it should be? It is definitely one of the biggest threats to human life right now, and the risk that Trump or someone with a similar disregard for climate change is going to take office in the US again is very real. The problem is going to get worse. We can limit it to 1.5-2 degrees if immediate action is taken to reduce our carbon output by 60% in the next 12 years, otherwise, we are locking ourselves in for much worse outcomes. A lot of work has to be done very quickly to go from the current increase in GHG levels to a 60% drop in 12 years, it is not something we can put off or just leave the problem to escalate and tell these kids "Oh don't worry, I'm sure you'll figure something out. Oh, and don't worry about all those kids dying, they are in Africa, so they don't matter". Yeah, sorry about the snarky attitude, but I hope you can see my point. Laid back optimism might seem fine for now as we won't be the first to be affected, but it still has consequences.